What really happened in Itamar?

Since Friday night, the biggest news stories out of Israel have concerned the murder of five members of the Fogel family in Itamar, a settlement deep inside the West Bank. Only three members of the family survived, and the disgusting act was not discovered until midnight Saturday, when their daughter returned home to find no one answering the door and finally, with the help of a neighbor, entered to find five family members murdered.

Of course, there was only one way for the Netanyahu-led coalition to react: promise to build more homes and give Itamar recognition as a city, a sentiment cranked up by major stakeholder Eli Yishai. This seems a bit irrational, as it derails the peace process even more and gives the Palestinians cause to consider taking up arms. Right now, no one knows who perpetrated these murders. Mahmoud Abbas made a point of going onto Radio Israel to harshly condemn the attacks, and Saeb Erekat and other Palestinian Authority officials came out to harshly condemn the attacks as well. Of course, some Palestinians were disgusted with the announcement of new housing projects in the West Bank to reward the martyrdom of people who burn olive groves and desecrate Arab cemeteries.

But the irrationality of this coalition will not allow for these feelings of sympathy to fall on hearing ears. The attitude is analogous to Sarah Palin: instead of "drill, baby, drill," it's "build, baby, build," in the name of a family of martyrs killed by an unknown suspect. The brother of the father, Motti, eulogized the family and asked that they not be made pawns in a national struggle, a call that seems to be falling of deaf ears. It is funny because the cabinet seems to be bypassing the courts' and police's responsibility to figure out who did this, having already found the Palestinian people guilty. No formal investigation has come up with a perpetrator, but no one is willing to say if it were a terrorist. It could have been a serial killer. No one knows, but Netanyahu is in to declaring, not letting this opportunity to rally around the flag be for naught. And while the Israelis focus on oppressing Palestinian leadership into a submissiveness similar to its people, they lose another ally in Uruguay who come to support Palestinian independence.

The next election will not be until 2013, unless there is a coalition breakdown. The religious parties will avoid a vote of no confidence at any cost, because that may play into the rise of a secular, left-leaning government. If Netanyahu were given a vote of no confidence, it is possible that Tzipi Livni would be given the chance to form a coalition, and Netanyahu, sick of the lack of diplomatic ability from Avigdor Lieberman, would accept a chance to govern in a national unity government, leaving the religious out of the fold. Kadima, with 28 seats in the Knesset, would lead, with Likud's 27 and Labor's 8 would give them enough of a majority (Let's leave the power-hungry Ehud Barak and Atzmaut out of this, as Labor wouldn't trust him and what's five members of Knesset worth?). The inclusion of Meretz's 3 would bring them up to 66 members. Possibly add in the Arab parties and you'd have 74. However, it is very unlikely that the Arab parties would join in a coalition with Likud, famous for oppressing the Arab Israelis (usually Christians and Muslims) that make up their constituents.

But could you imagine an Israeli coalition without any religious parties involved? The Interior Ministry would be able to accept so many more potential Jewish immigrants who would not need to have been converted by an Orthodox rabbi. Housing authorities would cater to building projects that do not claim more of the West Bank and instill confidence in the peace process among the Palestinians. This may be problematic in exposing the schisms between religious and secular in Israeli society, and launch a civil war that waits for the end of an Arab-Israeli conflict to be exposed, but the majority must take back the democracy it deserves sometime.

As Netanyahu clings to power, one may see the disaffected secular population finally show its power at the polls in the event of an election being called. As long as religious parties continue to be kingmakers, peace cannot be within reach. Instead, the government will continue to isolate Israel from an Arab world that is modernizing and beginning to see that the democracy they aspire to be is more oppressive than it claims.

Both Sides of the Jordan

My last post failed to expand on the new Jordanian cabinet, and there is a lot to discuss within Israel, so here it goes.

First off, Jordan. With a new cabinet will come new viewpoints, but there is one that is definitely not reassuring. Hussein Mjali is the new Justice Minister. But Mr. Mjali has some interesting views on the geopolitical situation at his western border. First, he rejects the 1994 treaty with Israel, and considers Israel a terrorist state. Which leads us to our second point, which is that he defended Ahmed Daqamseh, a Jordanian soldier who killed seven Israeli schoolchildren at the Israeli-Jordanian Island of Peace Park on the border. Now, with reports surfacing that he wants his former client freed, there seems to be some instability in Jordan that Israel should watch closely. Especially with a new cabinet coming in following the dismissal of its predecessor, populist moves make you popular, and what happens when the people decide they like the Justice Minister? Abdullah is going to struggle with this one, but he better recognize the need to keep Mjali in check or otherwise draw the ire of Israel and possibly destabilize relations.

And what of Netanyahu and Lieberman on the other side of the river? When Aluf Benn thinks you're being publicly emasculated by your deputy, there might be some problems. Netanyahu has lost a lot of his political capital to the coalition, and he doesn't seem to be gaining any back anytime soon. Fear-mongering by both Bibi and Lieberman won't help either, but Bibi has taken a step in the right direction by responding to Hizballah's Nasrallah with an acrid comeback. Bibi is losing control of his party and his coalition, and it looks like the cycle of parties in and out of party will continue in the coming election, whenever it arrives.

But the religious parties will remain, and people will be allowed to do stupid things like Dov Lior. So now, there will be a law that allows you to say whatever you want as long as the Torah backs it. This is a new low. But it is very possible that this backfires. Hell, soon you could see gay marriage legalized, or the rabbis completely removed from any sort of power. Unless the law has conditions that keep that from happening. And making an equivalence with "left-wing academics?" What a joke. Left-wing academics do not condone violence against non-Jews. If this doesn't make people stop believing in coalition politics, what will?

Finally, another right-wing proposal may find itself backfiring, as now it has been revealed that the leader of Im Tirzu is doing business with Iran. Im Tirzu is an organization that focuses on responding to any criticism to Israel, not admitting any missteps, which is exactly what Peter Beinart finds to be the main issue with American Zionism. Without some sort of internal criticism to actions, what is the point of free speech?

Gates and Jones Come to Visit and Haredi Settlements and there is Hezbollah Again!

Big news right now out of Jerusalem is the arrival of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and National Security Advisor James Jones with the primary subject of discussion being nuclear proliferation in Iran. Defense Minister Ehud Barak says no options are being taken off the table, but Obama's plan to wait for the UN General Assembly to convene in September may be too long for Israel (probably in the eyes of Mossad). This means that if Israel does choose to attack Iran, as recent movements into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal of submarines and warships seems to indicate, Israel may be looking at a PR disaster similar to the 1981 Operation Opera that took out the Iraqi nuclear reactor in Osirak and drew widespread international condemnation until the end of Desert Storm, which would have been a very different war had Iraq still had a nuclear capability.
However, it seems that Iran has been planning for this, with reports of facilities being spread out and being housed 80m below ground, which is hard to penetrate by even the most powerful of bombs. Iran also claims a working air defense system, which will also make this operation that much harder than going against what was basically the equivalent of burning ants with a magnifying glass by Saddam in Osirak.
On the edge of the West Bank, two Haredi settlements, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit, are preparing to challenge the Obama administration demands that settlements not be allowed to expand naturally. Recent IDF estimates put the count of settlers in the West Bank at more than 304,569 with 2.3 million Palestinians in the territory as well. The number of settlers has grown 2.3% since January, but without the two Illit settlements, this number falls to 1.75%. Since January, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit have grown 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.
The two cities are quite the contrast to the Haredi neighborhoods in Jerusalem and near Tel Aviv, which are usually characterized by a lack of upkeep. The Illits are well-kept, along with being well-developed by businesses. But still, poverty remains an issue, as charities such as the one run by Dov Fromowitz are supporting 1,200 families.
They also maintain good relationships with their Palestinian "neighbors," but not without issue. The Palestinians are able to access their agricultural fields that are in the valley in between neighborhoods of the one of the setllements by presenting an ID card and making a trek through a tunnel. The farmer interviewed by the New York Times seemed satisfied with the situation and hoped to pass down his fields to his son. However, other farmers were not happy with the development of the settlement, since runoff from a sweage treatment plant was going in the direction of their fields and contaminating it. The farmer asks who would want fruits and vegetables contaminated by sewage, and I must say no.
But a lack of attachment to the land is a good thing coming from the Haredi settlers, since if the time does come when they will be forced to leave in order to accomodate the new borders of a Palestinian state, there will not be an issue with these areas as opposed to the resistance put up by religious Zionists (best seen during the unilateral Gaza withdrawal and the Sinai withdrawal following the peace treaty with Egypt).
The recent discovery of a Hezbollah weapons cache in a UN Security Council-declared weapons-free zone near the Israel-Lebanon border (pretty easy to discover when, out of the blue, it explodes), has senior IDF officials putting up a message of deterrence for the terrorist organization that is probably still harboring resentment from the unsuccessful showing in Lebanese elections earlier this year.
Hezbollah is in a quandary trying to determine its next move. Nasrallah has made two aggressive claims: for Israel to return Lebanese prisoners, none of which are alive, and the body is said to be lost; and claims that Israel will invade Lebanon in the next year.
But Hezbollah has a lot to consider given the current instability in Iran, where President Ahmadinejad may be looking at a confidence vote in Parliament following the resignation of of Meshaei, his choice for his first deputy (who once said Iran was a friend of the US and Israel-the kicker though being that Ahmadinejad immediately hired him as his Chief of Staff), and the dismissal of another for taking issue with the appointment of the aforementioned. Iran is the main financial and material supporter of Hezbollah, and without a stable Iran to back them up, they seem to have fallen to a level where Israel does not see them as much of a threat.
Finally, this cellphone commercial is laughable. The original CellCom commercial DOESN'T HAVE ANY ARABS IN IT! One day you will learn.

Links

Noah Efron (he spells his name on books differently) gives perspective to the simmering tension between secular and religious Jews in Jerusalem that boiled over in the riots last week.
And the book linked from Amazon is the one that inspired me to start studying International Relations.

Steven Rosen on why Obama's stances on settlements end up harming the legitimacy of both sides.

Ehud Olmert thinks everybody has it all wrong.

Outreach to Israel from the Crown Prince of Bahrain.

Marc Lynch goes on NPR to talk about his insanely popular blog post about Jay-Z's position in the rap game being comparable to the US's in international politics.

Not That Quiet of a Riot

This piece of news was not in the American papers at all (although the Hezbollah arms cache was, and for good reason, along with Iron Dome, both of which should be beneficial to Israeli security due to the fact that the Ministry of Defense didn't have to wait until Hezbollah started firing said munitions, and the system will be ready in a year), but this one has been dominating the Israeli press for the past couple of days. Earlier in the week, a Neturei Karta (a sect of Haredim that reject the existence of the state of Israel due to the fact that a Messiah has not arrived) child, one of 10, was taken to a hospital with physicians under the suspicion that the mother had been starving the child who at 2 years old only weighed 7 kilograms (15.4 pounds, which is healthy if you're less than a year old). It turns out they were right when they caught her on video removing the child's feeding tube, and they were able to arrest her. According to this article, the police suspect she could be diagnosed with Munchhausen Syndrome by proxy, meaning she takes injurious action against people close to her in order to gain attention from others.

Of course, the Haredim, even those whose views of the State of Israel clash with those of the Neturei Karta over the legitimacy of the state, saw this as a direct attack against them, just as they saw the parking lots near the Jaffa Gate being open on Shabbat as an attack against their beliefs and religious practices. This caused them to see the government as trying to "make baseless allegations against Haredi mothers" with no other purpose but to steal their children. So they took to the streets in Meah Shearim, a neighborhood that is sadly notorious for its extremist views towards clothing that shows skin and those that drive on Shabbat (although police blockades are now put up on Friday night and stay there until Saturday night, and you actually don't save that much time by driving through that neighborhood). The burning of garbage caused a stench to travel all the way to the classroom where I have my Hebrew class. But that was not enough, as they decided to take to the streets that are main arteries for traffic, especially Bar Ilan Road and Eshkol Tunnel, which they blocked with garbage. This lead to secular mayor Nir Barkat shutting off all services to the neighborhood, and my bus, which usually passes by Meah Shearim, to literally go around the city and not make any of its regular stops. Luckily this roundabout lead me right to .

Today the situation has cooled off, as my bus took its usual route and we were able to see the aftermath: some graffiti, but soldiers and police at every corner and streets with a few children loitering and nearly no adults.

Ami Kaufman summarized the recent flare-up of the secular-religious conflict, the last significant rise of which is profiled in the book that drove me to study Israeli politics, Real Jews: Secular vs. Orthodox: The Struggle for Jewish Identity in Israel. He also surprised me by mentioning that Yossi Deri, who was convicted of corruption in the late 1980's, is now planning a political comeback (I dare someone in the US to try that). However, while Efron remained neutral in his analysis, Kaufman, who previously participated in demonstrations against the "religious coercion" in the late 1980's, leaves us with quite the inflammatory statement:

The flames are still low, but I don't know. Is it just me, or is it getting hot in here?

Well, Mr. Kaufman, the answer will be yes if you continue to write editorials and preclude the occurence of these events, and criticize people who find the secular attitude and action against Haredim to be reminiscent of what many Jews say is analogous to Nazi policy, then yes. The confrontation could be the death of Israel, if the secular fuel of the economy becomes apathetic enough to let theocracy take over.

Efron also wrote a piece on the episode, and I find him to be a bit more reasonable on the subject as he teaches at Bar-Ilan, an institution noted for its greater religious connection compared to other top Israeli universities. Efron understands the perspective of Haredim, who want to be isolated from the temptation of the secular sector, but cannot comprehend their squalid living conditions. They take welfare from the government with a quick reach, and when they are victimized in any way, they can't comprehend it. But their isolation is not perceived by the other side. When they see their imposition of religious restrictions, they see a society moving towards theocracy.

The tightrope of Israeli government seems to get thinner by the minute, and the coalition system seems to be the driving force. Government reform must be considered, or 20% of the population will ruin the country for the other 80%. Does that sound like a functional democracy?