What really happened in Itamar?

Since Friday night, the biggest news stories out of Israel have concerned the murder of five members of the Fogel family in Itamar, a settlement deep inside the West Bank. Only three members of the family survived, and the disgusting act was not discovered until midnight Saturday, when their daughter returned home to find no one answering the door and finally, with the help of a neighbor, entered to find five family members murdered.

Of course, there was only one way for the Netanyahu-led coalition to react: promise to build more homes and give Itamar recognition as a city, a sentiment cranked up by major stakeholder Eli Yishai. This seems a bit irrational, as it derails the peace process even more and gives the Palestinians cause to consider taking up arms. Right now, no one knows who perpetrated these murders. Mahmoud Abbas made a point of going onto Radio Israel to harshly condemn the attacks, and Saeb Erekat and other Palestinian Authority officials came out to harshly condemn the attacks as well. Of course, some Palestinians were disgusted with the announcement of new housing projects in the West Bank to reward the martyrdom of people who burn olive groves and desecrate Arab cemeteries.

But the irrationality of this coalition will not allow for these feelings of sympathy to fall on hearing ears. The attitude is analogous to Sarah Palin: instead of "drill, baby, drill," it's "build, baby, build," in the name of a family of martyrs killed by an unknown suspect. The brother of the father, Motti, eulogized the family and asked that they not be made pawns in a national struggle, a call that seems to be falling of deaf ears. It is funny because the cabinet seems to be bypassing the courts' and police's responsibility to figure out who did this, having already found the Palestinian people guilty. No formal investigation has come up with a perpetrator, but no one is willing to say if it were a terrorist. It could have been a serial killer. No one knows, but Netanyahu is in to declaring, not letting this opportunity to rally around the flag be for naught. And while the Israelis focus on oppressing Palestinian leadership into a submissiveness similar to its people, they lose another ally in Uruguay who come to support Palestinian independence.

The next election will not be until 2013, unless there is a coalition breakdown. The religious parties will avoid a vote of no confidence at any cost, because that may play into the rise of a secular, left-leaning government. If Netanyahu were given a vote of no confidence, it is possible that Tzipi Livni would be given the chance to form a coalition, and Netanyahu, sick of the lack of diplomatic ability from Avigdor Lieberman, would accept a chance to govern in a national unity government, leaving the religious out of the fold. Kadima, with 28 seats in the Knesset, would lead, with Likud's 27 and Labor's 8 would give them enough of a majority (Let's leave the power-hungry Ehud Barak and Atzmaut out of this, as Labor wouldn't trust him and what's five members of Knesset worth?). The inclusion of Meretz's 3 would bring them up to 66 members. Possibly add in the Arab parties and you'd have 74. However, it is very unlikely that the Arab parties would join in a coalition with Likud, famous for oppressing the Arab Israelis (usually Christians and Muslims) that make up their constituents.

But could you imagine an Israeli coalition without any religious parties involved? The Interior Ministry would be able to accept so many more potential Jewish immigrants who would not need to have been converted by an Orthodox rabbi. Housing authorities would cater to building projects that do not claim more of the West Bank and instill confidence in the peace process among the Palestinians. This may be problematic in exposing the schisms between religious and secular in Israeli society, and launch a civil war that waits for the end of an Arab-Israeli conflict to be exposed, but the majority must take back the democracy it deserves sometime.

As Netanyahu clings to power, one may see the disaffected secular population finally show its power at the polls in the event of an election being called. As long as religious parties continue to be kingmakers, peace cannot be within reach. Instead, the government will continue to isolate Israel from an Arab world that is modernizing and beginning to see that the democracy they aspire to be is more oppressive than it claims.

Both Sides of the Jordan

My last post failed to expand on the new Jordanian cabinet, and there is a lot to discuss within Israel, so here it goes.

First off, Jordan. With a new cabinet will come new viewpoints, but there is one that is definitely not reassuring. Hussein Mjali is the new Justice Minister. But Mr. Mjali has some interesting views on the geopolitical situation at his western border. First, he rejects the 1994 treaty with Israel, and considers Israel a terrorist state. Which leads us to our second point, which is that he defended Ahmed Daqamseh, a Jordanian soldier who killed seven Israeli schoolchildren at the Israeli-Jordanian Island of Peace Park on the border. Now, with reports surfacing that he wants his former client freed, there seems to be some instability in Jordan that Israel should watch closely. Especially with a new cabinet coming in following the dismissal of its predecessor, populist moves make you popular, and what happens when the people decide they like the Justice Minister? Abdullah is going to struggle with this one, but he better recognize the need to keep Mjali in check or otherwise draw the ire of Israel and possibly destabilize relations.

And what of Netanyahu and Lieberman on the other side of the river? When Aluf Benn thinks you're being publicly emasculated by your deputy, there might be some problems. Netanyahu has lost a lot of his political capital to the coalition, and he doesn't seem to be gaining any back anytime soon. Fear-mongering by both Bibi and Lieberman won't help either, but Bibi has taken a step in the right direction by responding to Hizballah's Nasrallah with an acrid comeback. Bibi is losing control of his party and his coalition, and it looks like the cycle of parties in and out of party will continue in the coming election, whenever it arrives.

But the religious parties will remain, and people will be allowed to do stupid things like Dov Lior. So now, there will be a law that allows you to say whatever you want as long as the Torah backs it. This is a new low. But it is very possible that this backfires. Hell, soon you could see gay marriage legalized, or the rabbis completely removed from any sort of power. Unless the law has conditions that keep that from happening. And making an equivalence with "left-wing academics?" What a joke. Left-wing academics do not condone violence against non-Jews. If this doesn't make people stop believing in coalition politics, what will?

Finally, another right-wing proposal may find itself backfiring, as now it has been revealed that the leader of Im Tirzu is doing business with Iran. Im Tirzu is an organization that focuses on responding to any criticism to Israel, not admitting any missteps, which is exactly what Peter Beinart finds to be the main issue with American Zionism. Without some sort of internal criticism to actions, what is the point of free speech?