Short-term and Long-term Forecasts

Things are changing quite a bit in the Arab world, and in the Persian world, we are getting some more of the same. As protests have risen in Bahrain, Iraq, and Libya, as responses to those successful ones in Tunisia and Egypt, one is left to wonder what is the future for the region.

The protests in Arab countries have been marked by violence, but not like those protests in the streets of Tehran last year following the Ahmadinejad election. There has been more change, as both Egypt and Tunisia have seen governments overthrown and now wait for permanent replacements to come to power. Jordan is seeing some sort of reform, but it does not seem to be the type that will satisfy a country where 2/3 are Palestinians treated like second class citizens. Bahrain seems more likely to placate its citizens, and it is a strategic locale for American interests in tampering Iranian regional hegemony. It also has a large Shia population, which makes it likely to go to Iran's open arms in the case of a government overthrow. However, the tone of the king in his response to protesters following the death of two protesters was mild and seemed to favor some sort of reform, as opposed to Mubarak's defiant and stubborn reaction to those in Tahrir Square. By continuing to let the people protest, he is showing an ear for their demands that Mubarak did not show, as he hid in safety and sent the police and army to hear them out.

Iraq shows an interesting case. As American troops will be out by the end of the year, Moqtada al-Sadr has shown himself to be the leader of the final push, allowing no mercy if American troops stay beyond their deadline of the end of the year. And with protests arising in Kut against a provincial governor, it may worry some about the stability of the region. al-Maliki has already declared the end of his time as prime minister, and it's a crapshoot on who will replace him, but it will probably be a Shia. We must wonder: how much influence will Sadr have? Will it be a similar influence to the Khameini in Iran, the country in which Sadr was in exile to avoid American threats?

Speaking of Iran, now that protests will become a part of life again, I cannot say that I see legitimate democracy overthrowing the theocracy in place. Why? Well, it isn't so much a theocracy as it is a theocratic oligarchy. The Basij wield a monopoly on violence that non-violent protest has shown itself unable to overcome. The Revolutionary Guard helps them hold that force, with the aid of their monopoly on the economy. Whoever Khameini wants to lead will lead, this is a certainty. Khatami's one-term rule was not questioned, because everyone knew what was happening in 2003 when his democratic reforms lost to a believer in the traditional, Ahmadinejad. However, as Iran basks in the glow of having been the catalyst for these revolts with their efforts in 1979 (yes, it took 32 years), they may be seeing a sea change in the part of the world. What if secular rule does rise? How do Khameini and Ahmadinejad explain that? Why do they continually put the blame for protests on other countries?

We may end up seeing Bush's democratization goal reached in much of the Middle East soon. Could it be something that he uses in 2012 to get voters to switch sides? Probably not, but it's a damn good foreign policy selling point. But the point I want to make is that Bush's strategy didn't work as well as Obama's approach. Obama let it stay in the hands of the country, trying to stay as hands-off as he could until things became too chaotic. Bush just talked about reform, bombed the countries he thought needed reform, and didn't speak another word. Soft power is on the rise, folks.

And speaking of soft power, the US is making a tangible attempt to increase their reserves of it with this cancellation of the extra F-35 engine. Military spending takes up a huge chunk of our spending, and while money is pulled out of programs like NPR and PBS,

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we usually have money continually funded to a defense budget that is greater than those of every other country in the world combined. But things have changed. This shows a weakness, sure, but think about how far ahead the US military is compared to other countries, besides the obvious nuclear deterrent.

While there are some spotty issues, my pessimism, for today, is gone. Some intermittent showers, but the sun is coming.

Gates and Jones Come to Visit and Haredi Settlements and there is Hezbollah Again!

Big news right now out of Jerusalem is the arrival of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and National Security Advisor James Jones with the primary subject of discussion being nuclear proliferation in Iran. Defense Minister Ehud Barak says no options are being taken off the table, but Obama's plan to wait for the UN General Assembly to convene in September may be too long for Israel (probably in the eyes of Mossad). This means that if Israel does choose to attack Iran, as recent movements into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal of submarines and warships seems to indicate, Israel may be looking at a PR disaster similar to the 1981 Operation Opera that took out the Iraqi nuclear reactor in Osirak and drew widespread international condemnation until the end of Desert Storm, which would have been a very different war had Iraq still had a nuclear capability.
However, it seems that Iran has been planning for this, with reports of facilities being spread out and being housed 80m below ground, which is hard to penetrate by even the most powerful of bombs. Iran also claims a working air defense system, which will also make this operation that much harder than going against what was basically the equivalent of burning ants with a magnifying glass by Saddam in Osirak.
On the edge of the West Bank, two Haredi settlements, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit, are preparing to challenge the Obama administration demands that settlements not be allowed to expand naturally. Recent IDF estimates put the count of settlers in the West Bank at more than 304,569 with 2.3 million Palestinians in the territory as well. The number of settlers has grown 2.3% since January, but without the two Illit settlements, this number falls to 1.75%. Since January, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit have grown 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.
The two cities are quite the contrast to the Haredi neighborhoods in Jerusalem and near Tel Aviv, which are usually characterized by a lack of upkeep. The Illits are well-kept, along with being well-developed by businesses. But still, poverty remains an issue, as charities such as the one run by Dov Fromowitz are supporting 1,200 families.
They also maintain good relationships with their Palestinian "neighbors," but not without issue. The Palestinians are able to access their agricultural fields that are in the valley in between neighborhoods of the one of the setllements by presenting an ID card and making a trek through a tunnel. The farmer interviewed by the New York Times seemed satisfied with the situation and hoped to pass down his fields to his son. However, other farmers were not happy with the development of the settlement, since runoff from a sweage treatment plant was going in the direction of their fields and contaminating it. The farmer asks who would want fruits and vegetables contaminated by sewage, and I must say no.
But a lack of attachment to the land is a good thing coming from the Haredi settlers, since if the time does come when they will be forced to leave in order to accomodate the new borders of a Palestinian state, there will not be an issue with these areas as opposed to the resistance put up by religious Zionists (best seen during the unilateral Gaza withdrawal and the Sinai withdrawal following the peace treaty with Egypt).
The recent discovery of a Hezbollah weapons cache in a UN Security Council-declared weapons-free zone near the Israel-Lebanon border (pretty easy to discover when, out of the blue, it explodes), has senior IDF officials putting up a message of deterrence for the terrorist organization that is probably still harboring resentment from the unsuccessful showing in Lebanese elections earlier this year.
Hezbollah is in a quandary trying to determine its next move. Nasrallah has made two aggressive claims: for Israel to return Lebanese prisoners, none of which are alive, and the body is said to be lost; and claims that Israel will invade Lebanon in the next year.
But Hezbollah has a lot to consider given the current instability in Iran, where President Ahmadinejad may be looking at a confidence vote in Parliament following the resignation of of Meshaei, his choice for his first deputy (who once said Iran was a friend of the US and Israel-the kicker though being that Ahmadinejad immediately hired him as his Chief of Staff), and the dismissal of another for taking issue with the appointment of the aforementioned. Iran is the main financial and material supporter of Hezbollah, and without a stable Iran to back them up, they seem to have fallen to a level where Israel does not see them as much of a threat.
Finally, this cellphone commercial is laughable. The original CellCom commercial DOESN'T HAVE ANY ARABS IN IT! One day you will learn.