Monday, July 27, 2009

Gates and Jones Come to Visit and Haredi Settlements and there is Hezbollah Again!

Big news right now out of Jerusalem is the arrival of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and National Security Advisor James Jones with the primary subject of discussion being nuclear proliferation in Iran. Defense Minister Ehud Barak says no options are being taken off the table, but Obama's plan to wait for the UN General Assembly to convene in September may be too long for Israel (probably in the eyes of Mossad). This means that if Israel does choose to attack Iran, as recent movements into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal of submarines and warships seems to indicate, Israel may be looking at a PR disaster similar to the 1981 Operation Opera that took out the Iraqi nuclear reactor in Osirak and drew widespread international condemnation until the end of Desert Storm, which would have been a very different war had Iraq still had a nuclear capability.
However, it seems that Iran has been planning for this, with reports of facilities being spread out and being housed 80m below ground, which is hard to penetrate by even the most powerful of bombs. Iran also claims a working air defense system, which will also make this operation that much harder than going against what was basically the equivalent of burning ants with a magnifying glass by Saddam in Osirak.
On the edge of the West Bank, two Haredi settlements, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit, are preparing to challenge the Obama administration demands that settlements not be allowed to expand naturally. Recent IDF estimates put the count of settlers in the West Bank at more than 304,569 with 2.3 million Palestinians in the territory as well. The number of settlers has grown 2.3% since January, but without the two Illit settlements, this number falls to 1.75%. Since January, Modiin Illit and Beitar Illit have grown 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.
The two cities are quite the contrast to the Haredi neighborhoods in Jerusalem and near Tel Aviv, which are usually characterized by a lack of upkeep. The Illits are well-kept, along with being well-developed by businesses. But still, poverty remains an issue, as charities such as the one run by Dov Fromowitz are supporting 1,200 families.
They also maintain good relationships with their Palestinian "neighbors," but not without issue. The Palestinians are able to access their agricultural fields that are in the valley in between neighborhoods of the one of the setllements by presenting an ID card and making a trek through a tunnel. The farmer interviewed by the New York Times seemed satisfied with the situation and hoped to pass down his fields to his son. However, other farmers were not happy with the development of the settlement, since runoff from a sweage treatment plant was going in the direction of their fields and contaminating it. The farmer asks who would want fruits and vegetables contaminated by sewage, and I must say no.
But a lack of attachment to the land is a good thing coming from the Haredi settlers, since if the time does come when they will be forced to leave in order to accomodate the new borders of a Palestinian state, there will not be an issue with these areas as opposed to the resistance put up by religious Zionists (best seen during the unilateral Gaza withdrawal and the Sinai withdrawal following the peace treaty with Egypt).
The recent discovery of a Hezbollah weapons cache in a UN Security Council-declared weapons-free zone near the Israel-Lebanon border (pretty easy to discover when, out of the blue, it explodes), has senior IDF officials putting up a message of deterrence for the terrorist organization that is probably still harboring resentment from the unsuccessful showing in Lebanese elections earlier this year.
Hezbollah is in a quandary trying to determine its next move. Nasrallah has made two aggressive claims: for Israel to return Lebanese prisoners, none of which are alive, and the body is said to be lost; and claims that Israel will invade Lebanon in the next year.
But Hezbollah has a lot to consider given the current instability in Iran, where President Ahmadinejad may be looking at a confidence vote in Parliament following the resignation of of Meshaei, his choice for his first deputy (who once said Iran was a friend of the US and Israel-the kicker though being that Ahmadinejad immediately hired him as his Chief of Staff), and the dismissal of another for taking issue with the appointment of the aforementioned. Iran is the main financial and material supporter of Hezbollah, and without a stable Iran to back them up, they seem to have fallen to a level where Israel does not see them as much of a threat.
Finally, this cellphone commercial is laughable. The original CellCom commercial DOESN'T HAVE ANY ARABS IN IT! One day you will learn.

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