It was nice of Howard Kohr, AIPAC's Executive Director, to come on between the two as a warm-up for Bibi, and tell the press today that Obama doesn't know what he's talking about. So will Bibi drive the stake in tonight? If what National Security Council leader Yaakov Amrari is the advice Bibi is following, expect the posturing mostly align with Obama. Amrari sees the dispute as what it really is: the media distortion of Obama's words to a soundbite (this is the same conclusion you can draw from the analysis on today's Diane Rehm show, but there still is some question into the hostility of Netanyahu, which can be traced back to the existential safety Israel truly desires), and ignore the land swaps that would be part of the negotiations. Amrari points out that this swap would leave too many Israelis outside of Israeli borders for one reason: this coalition is very dependent on the votes of settlers to keep the small parties, the kingmakers with enough votes to hold that power.
Netanyahu's speech is more of the same: agreeing with Obama, but as an alum of MIT, his tone shows he is fighting, mostly because he doesn't think Obama understands what Israel needs. However, he knows what to tell AIPAC and lawmakers. Still, his address to AIPAC included one clause that Abbas has not been about: recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. For how similar his vision is to Obama, his tone may be the driver that
Netanyahu's speech to Congress looked and sounded like a George W. Bush speech to the same group: lots of standing ovations and no booing (looking at you, Joe Wilson, for ending the streak for Obama). Hell, it may have sounded better because of his obviously tighter grasp on the English language. But the sticking points are very obvious:
1. Hamas is a terrorist organization: They did condemn the killing of Bin Laden, and Netanyahu was wise to use that statement as a rallying around the flag moment for the US legislators. Calling them the Palestinian Al-Qaeda was a bit far, but he has a point, as they quickly accepted the 1967 borders, but still stayed with the goal of destroying Israel, and any Congressperson who doesn't stand to clap for that would be sealing their reelection loss.
2. He agrees with Obama on the swaps: June 4, 1967, didn't work, so there must be swaps. The only issue I have with this is the way he phrases it seems to put him in opposition to Obama. Some people only read tone, and for that reason I think his AIPAC speech might drive a lot of Jewish voters from Obama when he has done much more for Israel (I know, by doing very little) than Bush did (he of putting the Palestinians to election and allowing Hamas to be elected).
3. He wants to sit down to negotiate: Every Prime Minister since Rabin, save Ariel Sharon, has been willing to negotiate. Netanyahu is no difference, and as the first Likud leader to accept two states. Danny Danon and Mahmoud Abbas both made unilateral action sound destructive.
4. Rockets: The rockets need to stop or there will be more incursions. The rockets equal war, and if they don't stop, well, that isn't peace. There is no other way to look at it, and the people who justify it are misinformed.
5. Settlers: C-SPAN opened up to their listeners, and one American Orthodox Jew (he called the West Bank יהודה ושמרון) called to criticize Netanyahu, saying that he had no plan for the settlers. However, he did: the land swaps will bring in many of those settlers, but some will be forced to move. I think that the one sticking point will be Hebron, the second most holy site in Judaism, the Tomb of the Patriarchs, מערת המכפלה, is there, and they will not be willing to put it under the jurisdiction of the Palestinians. Especially with the coalition, this will be the main sticking point for any final agreement.
Having Congressional leaders meet with Netanyahu after his speech put the ball in Abbas' court. Especially with Fayyad's health issue (now not a heart attack) yesterday, Abbas needs to show himself as a stable partner for this to move forward. Otherwise, the American blame will go to the Palestinians, and we will see Abbas and Danon's pieces in the New York Times come to fruition this fall.